In an article published by “Al Joumhouria” on October 15, 2025, journalist Imad Marmal explores the evolving situation in Gaza following the initial implementation of the Trump peace plan and the implications it may have for Lebanon.
The first phase of the Gaza ceasefire agreement — including prisoner exchanges, the return of Israeli bodies, humanitarian aid access, and partial Israeli withdrawal — has been completed. However, the more challenging and politically sensitive aspects of the deal are just beginning, notably the disarmament of Hamas and the deployment of international forces under a so-called “Peace Council,” effectively placing Gaza under a form of external trusteeship.
Marmal notes that while Hamas has fully complied with the first phase, it has not committed to disarmament. The movement has agreed only to negotiate that issue, not to accept the American terms outright. According to insiders, Hamas is unwilling to give up its weapons as long as the occupation continues, believing that what Israel failed to seize militarily over two years of war cannot be surrendered at the negotiating table.
This raises a pressing question: could Gaza’s model be applied to Lebanon, or vice versa? Marmal suggests that Israel might replicate its “Lebanese model” in Gaza — limited strikes, targeted assassinations, and continuous low-intensity conflict — even after a ceasefire. Hamas and other Palestinian factions are reportedly preparing for such a scenario, drawing lessons from Lebanon’s experience.
The article also highlights that Hamas’s main objective was to protect Gaza’s civilian population by agreeing to parts of the plan, while keeping open the possibility of ongoing military and security confrontations in different forms.
Marmal concludes by warning that the unpredictable nature of Israel’s far-right leadership means no scenario can be ruled out, despite international guarantees and Trump’s desire to claim a personal diplomatic victory.
