The Lebanese south has returned to the forefront of events after a serious escalation on the ground reignited tensions to their highest levels. The town of Blida witnessed an Israeli incursion that resulted in the killing of a municipal employee inside the town hall, followed by an Israeli drone strike targeting a motorcycle in Kounine, in the Bint Jbeil area, leaving one dead and another injured. These developments prompted President Joseph Aoun to issue direct orders to the Lebanese Army to “confront any future Israeli incursion,” a move described as firm and unprecedented in years.
At the same time, the Lebanese Army intensified its deployment in southern border villages, seeking to impose a limited deterrence formula to prevent sliding into full-scale confrontation. The president’s stance received clear backing from Hezbollah, which deemed the Lebanese response a “necessary shift” in the face of repeated Israeli violations. However, political circles remain cautious, as the southern border is still exposed to intermittent operations and limited airstrikes that could ignite the situation at any moment.
On the domestic front, the Syrian refugee repatriation file saw significant progress, with the Minister of Social Affairs announcing the return of over 320,000 refugees since July, as part of an organized plan aiming to repatriate half a million by year’s end. Despite this relative achievement, the issue remains surrounded by major humanitarian and political challenges, particularly amid the absence of effective international coordination.
Meanwhile, the broader political scene oscillates between anticipation and confusion, with ongoing debates over the electoral law and power dynamics. As internal attention remains divided between politics and economic woes, southern Lebanon sits atop a volatile front — carrying within it the potential for either explosion or de-escalation. No one can say which is closer, but it is clear that Lebanon stands at a critical juncture, redrawing its internal and regional equations anew.
